[snow_wizard]

With a rather cool day coming up to finish out the month tomorrow (July 31), both SEA and PDX are pretty much guaranteed to average at least 0.5 degree below normal for July. In both cases this will be the coolest July since 2001. You might say we are due for a bunch of cool Julys after such a ridiculous run of warm ones.

[Dadio]

snow_wizard, on 30 July 2010 - 05:45 PM, said:

With a rather cool day coming up to finish out the month tomorrow (July 31), both SEA and PDX are pretty much guaranteed to average at least 0.5 degree below normal for July. In both cases this will be the coolest July since 2001. You might say we are due for a bunch of cool Julys after such a ridiculous run of warm ones.

I really hope that is what the cool phase of the PDO gives us. It is even more incredible what San Diego has going on.

[snow_wizard]

We did it!

SEA and PDX both at least 0.5 below normal. In fact I think SEA did -0.7 and PDX -0.6.

[Jesse]

snow_wizard, on 31 July 2010 - 11:01 PM, said:

We did it!

SEA and PDX both at least 0.5 below normal. In fact I think SEA did -0.7 and PDX -0.6.

Cue a post from Tim or Justin downplaying it/complaining about low clouds in 5...4...3...2...

[tt-sea]

snow_wizard, on 31 July 2010 - 11:01 PM, said:

We did it!

SEA and PDX both at least 0.5 below normal. In fact I think SEA did -0.7 and PDX -0.6.

Within one degree of normal.

We spend far too much time discussing minutia.

This had nothing to do with the 500mb pattern... and everything to do with cold water off the coast that has no effect when it would be nice to be colder than normal (i.e. winter).

[Jesse]

tt-sea, on 31 July 2010 - 11:17 PM, said:

Within one degree of normal.

We spend far too much time discussing minutia.

This had nothing to do with the 500mb pattern... and everything to do with cold water off the coast that has no effect when it would be nice to be colder than normal (i.e. winter).

...1

With irony for extra spice!

[tt-sea]

Jesse, on 31 July 2010 - 11:19 PM, said:

...1

With irony for extra spice!

Yep... I am just as guilty.

That is why I said "we".

[snow_wizard]

tt-sea, on 01 August 2010 - 07:17 AM, said:

Within one degree of normal.

We spend far too much time discussing minutia.

This had nothing to do with the 500mb pattern... and everything to do with cold water off the coast that has no effect when it would be nice to be colder than normal (i.e. winter).

I think it sounds much more impressive to say the coolest July in 9 years!

In actuality if you take out the three abnormally warm days the month was quite cool. The anomaly maps show a persistent positive 500mb anom was at 145W this month. Not a bad position for cold.

[tt-sea]

snow_wizard, on 31 July 2010 - 11:23 PM, said:

I think it sounds much more impressive to say the coolest July in 9 years!

Meaningless. Just the effect of cold water. Not a cold air mass.

The cold water does nothing for us in the winter. We need cold air masses to score.

[Jesse]

tt-sea, on 31 July 2010 - 11:17 PM, said:

Within one degree of normal.

We spend far too much time discussing minutia.

This had nothing to do with the 500mb pattern... and everything to do with cold water off the coast that has no effect when it would be nice to be colder than normal (i.e. winter).

Yes, I'm sure the fact that we've had some form of troughing at 500mb over us almost the entire month had nothing to do with it being cooler.

You're smarter than this.

[Jesse]

tt-sea, on 31 July 2010 - 11:25 PM, said:

Meaningless. Just the effect of cold water. Not a cold air mass.

The cold water does nothing for us in the winter. We need cold air masses to score.

Which we need troughing for. The mean trough position was over the NW almost the entire month, save a few days. If the offshore ridging, PNW troughing pattern lasts into Winter a lot of people on here would be happy. Hardly meaningless.

You're taking this cold water thing to an almost idiotic level.

[tt-sea]

Jesse, on 31 July 2010 - 11:30 PM, said:

Which we need troughing for. The mean trough position was over the NW almost the entire month, save a few days. If the offshore ridging, PNW troughing pattern lasts into Winter a lot of people on here would be happy. Hardly meaningless.

You're taking this cold water thing to an almost idiotic level.

Totally wrong.

You are smarter than this.

There were numerous days under this so-called persistent troughing with warm 850mb temps that should have easily supported 75-85 degrees at SEA... and yet we were artifically cold due to an inversion caused by cold water and those warm 850mb temps. The cold water is the ONLY reason we ended up slightly below normal.

And troughing does nothing when the jet stream is slamming us. We are always troughy all winter and the end result is months and months of rain. We need true cold air masses... which we did not have in July.

[Jesse]

tt-sea, on 31 July 2010 - 11:35 PM, said:

Totally wrong.

You are smarter than this.

There were numerous days under this so-called persistent troughing with warm 850mb temps that should have easily supported 75-85 degrees at SEA... and yet we were artifically cold due to an inversion caused by cold water and those warm 850mb temps. The cold water is the ONLY reason we ended up slightly below normal.

And troughing does nothing when the jet stream is slamming us. We are always troughy all winter and the end result is months and months of rain. We need true cold air masses... which we did not have in July.

This is called a marine inversion. It will happen in the Summer over the PNW lowlands if the flow is onshore thanks to a weakly troughy pattern aloft. It doesn't matter if the water is 50 or 55 degrees, it will still happen.

If we'd had a truly warm/hot pattern this July, with mean ridging over the PNW, water temperatures would've been a moot point because the flow would have been offshore or southerly most of the time anyway. As it stands, IMO they're meaningless to the strength of marine inversions anyway. Like Dewey said, whether the water off our Coast is average or -5, it's f***ing cold regardless.

[tt-sea]

Jesse, on 31 July 2010 - 11:41 PM, said:

This is called a marine inversion. It will happen in the Summer over the PNW lowlands if the flow is onshore thanks to a weakly troughy pattern aloft. It doesn't matter if the water is 50 or 55 degrees, it will still happen.

If we'd had a truly warm/hot pattern this July, with mean ridging over the PNW, water temperatures would've been meaningless because the flow would have been offshore or southerly most of the time anyway. As it stands, they're meainingless to the strength of marine inversions anyway, IMO. Like Dewey said, whether the water off our Coast is average or -5, it's f***ing cold regardless.

Dewey was wrong.

Look at San Diego. It has everything to do with an inversion.

This is the marine layer on steriods. And its been colder than usual under those low clouds.

The air mass is warm... and yet its cold.

Its a fine line and the cold water was just enough to strongly effect places like SEA and PDX. Up here at 1,100 feet it was significantly warmer than SEA on numerous days under the same warm air mass. Today is a great example. 78 degrees here and only 69 at SEA.

Under normal summer conditions with 850mb temp of 16C... SEA would have been about 78 as well.

[Jesse]

tt-sea, on 31 July 2010 - 11:45 PM, said:

Dewey was wrong.

Look at San Diego. It has everything to do with an inversion.

This is the marine layer on steriods. And its been colder than usual under those low clouds.

The air mass is warm... and yet its cold.

Its a fine line and the cold water was just enough to strongly effect places like SEA and PDX. Up here at 1,100 feet it was significantly warmer than SEA on numerous days under the same warm air mass. Today is a great example. 78 degrees here and only 69 at SEA.

Under normal summer conditions with 850mb temp of 16C... SEA would have been about 78 as well.

Even if your theory is correct and the "marine layer on steroids" is to blame for the cooler than normal month at SEA and PDX, who are you to judge weather or not that's meaningful? Meaning is pretty relative. The only adjective I can really think of for this July is comfortable.

Maybe some of us like cool Summer weather at face value. It's been a great, mostly sunny month, a wonderful stretch of Summer. It doesn't have to mean snow or cold or something else "meaningful" down the road for me to enjoy it.

[tt-sea]

Jesse, on 01 August 2010 - 12:00 AM, said:

Even if your theory is correct and the "marine layer on steroids" is to blame for the cooler than normal month at SEA and PDX, who are you to judge weather or not that's meaningful? Meaning is pretty relative. The only adjective I can really think of for this July is comfortable.

Maybe some of us like cool Summer weather at face value. It's been a great, mostly sunny month, a wonderful stretch of Summer. It doesn't have to mean snow or cold or something else "meaningful" down the road for me to enjoy it.

So be it. But I am right about this month. I can pick out at least 10 days this month that were far colder than anyone would think with a reasonably warm air mass. The NWS and the MM5 models included. Its not a normal situation... nor a situation caused by persistent cold air masses.

No day with thick low clouds and a temp in the 50s at noon in July is enjoyable to most people.

SEA had way too much time under very thick clouds for a summer month.

Its all about the inversion dude.

We call it fake cold... and its obvious what happened in July.

[snow_wizard]

Like I said earlier. I will take my chances with above normal heights at 145W anytime in the winter. That is where the high was this month.

[iFred]

tt-sea, on 31 July 2010 - 11:05 PM, said:

So be it. But I am right about this month. I can pick out at least 10 days this month that were far colder than anyone would think with a reasonably warm air mass. The NWS and the MM5 models included. Its not a normal situation... nor a situation caused by persistent cold air masses.

No day with thick low clouds and a temp in the 50s at noon in July is enjoyable to most people.

SEA had way too much time under very thick clouds for a summer month.

Its all about the inversion dude.

We call it fake cold... and its obvious what happened in July.

My god man, is there anything positive that spews from you? Do you disregard the record cold air masses that have passed over us, unless you only count temps at specific heights from models that push your ridge filled agenda? I dont think I have read anything from you that seems to either be positive or constructive in these debates, and at times its discouraging.

[tt-sea]

iFred, on 01 August 2010 - 12:55 AM, said:

My god man, is there anything positive that spews from you? Do you disregard the record cold air masses that have passed over us, unless you only count temps at specific heights from models that push your ridge filled agenda? I dont think I have read anything from you that seems to either be positive or constructive in these debates, and at times its discouraging.

I am completely accurate about the reason SEA and PDX were slightly below normal for July.

It is what it is.

But then... I don't have a trough-filled, endlessly cold all year-round bias.

It is constructive... because its factual.

And my definition of "positive" is not just sitting around praising everything cold. One way to be "positive" would be saying how gorgeous it is when its warm. And I do.

[MallowTheCloud]

Tim is right about the warmer 850 mb temperatures and higher heights.

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However, if we saw that same 500mb pattern in winter, it would certainly be colder than normal.