[iFred]

Ive been lurking for the past three months and have gotten the general tone of a lot of your views. For some, when your name implies that you profess a love for snow and cold, it shows that you might have a bias. What I haven't seen much of are those who feel and forecast a warmer or a not so cold winter. Im not trying to start some old fashion weather drama that has been seen as of late, but what I want to know is if you feel that this winter wont be filled with wind and snow, post it here, I'm interested.

[epiceast]

The cold bias kinds will say it will be cold, and tim will say its warm. It's actually the same thing every year, there aren't any impartial forecasters here.

[iFred]

Ahh... ok. Well I was curious if there was anyone who was a hold out for a non event this year, and to see what the logic was. Its one thing to say that it'll rain and be mild year round but another to back it up with logic.

[luminen]

Why do you think it will be warm?

From what you wrote, it sounds like you're just saying it'll be warm because no one else is, without backing it up with "logic".

[Dadio]

I do not think you will find anyone that will say it will be a nonevent this year. There are to many interesting things going on with the weather, sun, and climate for this coming winter to be boring. It will have stuff going on. It might be very wet and chilly with not lots of snow. It might be drier and very cold. We might get some serious snow. I believe I have seen logical reasoning for all of these possibilities. I am not sure what we will have. It will be interesting to discuss and even more interesting to see the winter.

[gninthgil10]

Look we are still right in the Middle of summer time. This is the most fun time of year to dream about what the next fall/winter/spring will bring to the West Coast. Do not bring down the dreams of some for a great winter.

[Black Hole]

My forecasts are always logic based. You won't see me going into a weak el nino and being positive!

[Dadio]

No need to worry about those of us that dream and look for facts to validate the dream. Someone would have to be annoying and work at it to hurt our dreaming. Even then we would just do our dreaming elsewhere or put them on ignore. Which I have no clue how to do. I just skip over annoying posts.

[iFred]

Well thats awesome to know that a lot of you have foretasted or are at least expecting something out of the norm this winter Its frustrating to hear from people that wave the zonal flow flag or proclaim that using analogues pre 1975 are pointless due to AGW.

Personally I am looking forward to some amazing windstorms and some prolonged cold, and there is a lot of logic that supports that.

It was interesting to read from some forecasters on a el nino bounce back, but those guys call for some warming ENSO event every year.

[snow_wizard]

epiceast, on 30 July 2010 - 02:25 AM, said:

The cold bias kinds will say it will be cold, and tim will say its warm. It's actually the same thing every year, there aren't any impartial forecasters here.

The important thing is to have facts to back up a forecast. A cold forecast is very supportable for this winter.

[MallowTheCloud]

iFred, on 29 July 2010 - 06:16 PM, said:

Ive been lurking for the past three months and have gotten the general tone of a lot of your views. For some, when your name implies that you profess a love for snow and cold, it shows that you might have a bias. What I haven't seen much of are those who feel and forecast a warmer or a not so cold winter. Im not trying to start some old fashion weather drama that has been seen as of late, but what I want to know is if you feel that this winter wont be filled with wind and snow, post it here, I'm interested.

Here was my forecast (and verification) last year:
http://www.easternus...ost__p__4198527
http://www.easternus...ost__p__4753417

This year, it's too early to say much with any real confidence (I think there are quite a few who are perhaps a little too excited about this winter), but all the signs so far are good for us... so I'm still quite hopeful for this winter.

[weather girl]

I know, I know. Take it with a grain of salt. JB is just now starting to talk about his winter ideas. Let me just put it this way: The language he is using at this point would make most of the posters on this board very, Very, VERY happy.

But I'm open to the ideas of others, too.

[Brian_in_Bellingham]

weather girl, on 30 July 2010 - 08:47 AM, said:

I know, I know. Take it with a grain of salt. JB is just now starting to talk about his winter ideas. Let me just put it this way: The language he is using at this point would make most of the posters on this board very, Very, VERY happy.

But I'm open to the ideas of others, too.

His winter forecast will be made public on Tuesday. I assume it is his preliminary forecast, since it is still summer. But I know from previous videos that he thinks the cold in Alaska could spill into the PNW. At the time of the video, the CFS forecasts did not show that, but they are now, so maybe he will be more bullish then before on PNW cold.

[luvssnow_seattle]

Brian_in_Bellingham, on 30 July 2010 - 10:53 AM, said:

His winter forecast will be made public on Tuesday. I assume it is his preliminary forecast, since it is still summer. But I know from previous videos that he thinks the cold in Alaska could spill into the PNW. At the time of the video, the CFS forecasts did not show that, but they are now, so maybe he will be more bullish then before on PNW cold.

Are you talking about Joe Bastardi? I assume that is what JB stands for.

[Brian_in_Bellingham]

luvssnow_seattle, on 30 July 2010 - 10:08 AM, said:

Are you talking about Joe Bastardi? I assume that is what JB stands for.

Yes.

[Andrew Johnson]

Isn't JB the guy who goes on the Hannity show lol

[weather girl]

Brian_in_Bellingham, on 30 July 2010 - 10:53 AM, said:

His winter forecast will be made public on Tuesday. I assume it is his preliminary forecast, since it is still summer. But I know from previous videos that he thinks the cold in Alaska could spill into the PNW. At the time of the video, the CFS forecasts did not show that, but they are now, so maybe he will be more bullish then before on PNW cold.

You are correct. I think he will be issuing an even more substantial forecast in September.

[Brian_in_Bellingham]

Andrew Johnson, on 30 July 2010 - 10:30 AM, said:

Isn't JB the guy who goes on the Hannity show lol

JB has been all over the media. I have seen him on ABC, NBC, MSNBC, CNBC, CBS, CNN, FOX, etc. Sometimes talking about AGW, sometimes talking about tropical storms, sometimes talking about Noreasters.

[snow_wizard]

weather girl, on 30 July 2010 - 04:47 PM, said:

I know, I know. Take it with a grain of salt. JB is just now starting to talk about his winter ideas. Let me just put it this way: The language he is using at this point would make most of the posters on this board very, Very, VERY happy.

But I'm open to the ideas of others, too.

Oh yeah! I just got a copy of the forecast "leaked" to me. Sounds fabulous! It's pretty exciting to know he nailed what happened in DC last winter.

[MallowTheCloud]

snow_wizard, on 30 July 2010 - 11:12 AM, said:

Oh yeah! I just got a copy of the forecast "leaked" to me. Sounds fabulous! It's pretty exciting to know he nailed what happened in DC last winter.

He has also been horribly horribly wrong several times.

The problem with JB is he only forecasts extremes. As far as I know, he has never forecast a winter where no large region had significant cold... and yet there have been plenty of winters where that's been the case.